In advance of President Trump's Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), FAS presents the 2018 NPR Resource with a searchable version of the leaked draft NPR, FAS and other expert analysis, and historical context of past NPRs (Obama, Clinton, Bush).
GOVERNMENT SECRECY PROJECT (Dir.乐动冠军Steven Aftergood)Program Activity
There are brand-new entries in Secrecy News, including a look at how abudget law might "neuter" intelligence oversight:
In the Press
"The Federation of American Scientists estimates India has 120 to 130 nuclear weapons in its inventory, placing it among the nine countries worldwide known to possess such weapons." →
Hans Kristensen: "The justification was the threat of a Soviet surprise attack" … The idea was to protect the Air Force's capacity to respond to a nuclear attack by keeping a certain number of nuclear-armed bombers in the air at all times. →
Steven Aftergood: "I think the real concern is the precedent that is being set … The message [the shutdown-ending provision] sends is that intelligence oversight is optional, not essential, and that we can do without it.But we can't." →
RMOD视频大有帮助,因为它允许特定设施与SS-25发射车库地理定位乐动登陆Although the launch took place at night, the glare from the missile engine illuminated the entire facility so I could geo-locate on Google Earth (see below).
Unlike the Kura range, the Sary-Shagan is thought to have more advanced tracking facilities that are used to monitor the behavior of advanced payloads.乐动体育 新闻app俄国军方在SS-25上飞什么未知数,但可能是可调回飞行器或某些高级诱因以愚弄导弹防御系统。
2013年俄国测试启动SS-27ICBM改称RS-26至此范围时,一些观察家
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Working at the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado-Boulder, the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers, and the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at UCLA, these scientists used state-of-the-art computer modeling to evaluate the consequences of a range of possible nuclear conflicts.开始于东南亚假设大战, 共100枚广岛规模原子弹在印度和巴基斯坦市引爆广岛原子弹爆炸前后的下列图像,原子弹爆炸力为15 000吨TNT乐动登陆
The detonation of an atomic bomb with this explosive power will instantly ignite fires over a surface area of three to five square miles.In the recent studies, the scientists calculated that the blast, fire, and radiation from a war fought with 100 atomic bombs could produce direct fatalities comparable to all of those worldwide in World War II, or to those once estimated for a "counterforce" nuclear war between the superpowers. However, the long-term environmental effects of the war could significantly disrupt the global weather for at least a decade, which would likely result in a vast global famine.
The scientists predicted that nuclear firestorms in the burning cities would cause at least five million tons of black carbon smoke to quickly rise above cloud level into the stratosphere, where it could not be rained out. The smoke would circle the Earth in less than two weeks and would form a global stratospheric smoke layer that would remain for more than a decade. The smoke would absorb warming sunlight, which would heat the smoke to temperatures near the boiling point of water, producing ozone losses of 20 to 50 percent over populated areas. This would almost double the amount of UV-B reaching the most populated regions of the mid-latitudes, and it would create UV-B indices unprecedented in human history.In North America and Central Europe, the time required to get a painful sunburn at mid-day in June could decrease to as little as six minutes for fair-skinned individuals.
As the smoke layer blocked warming sunlight from reaching the Earth's surface, it would produce the coldest average surface temperatures in the last 1,000 years. The scientists calculated that global food production would decrease by 20 to 40 percent during a five-year period following such a war. Medical experts have predicted that the shortening of growing seasons and corresponding decreases in agricultural production could cause up to two billion people to perish from famine.
The climatologists also investigated the effects of a nuclear war fought with the vastly more powerful modern thermonuclear weapons possessed by the United States, Russia, China, France, and England.乐动登陆Some of the thermonuclear weapons constructed during the 1950s and 1960s were 1,000 times more powerful than an atomic bomb.
During the last 30 years, the average size of thermonuclear or "strategic" nuclear weapons has decreased.今日,美国和俄国部署的大约3 540件战略武器中,每件都比印度-巴基斯坦研究模型原子弹强7至80倍最小战略核武器爆炸力为100,000吨TNT,而原子弹平均爆炸力为15,000吨TNTspan/ps类表示'p4'span类表示's2'>战略核武器产生比原子弹大得多的核风暴标准俄国800-kiroton弹头平均日数
Under such conditions, it would only require a matter of days or weeks for daily minimum temperatures to fall below freezing in the largest agricultural areas of the Northern Hemisphere, where freezing temperatures would occur every day for a period of between one to more than two years. Average surface temperatures would become colder than those experienced 18,000 years ago at the height of the last Ice Age, and the prolonged cold would cause average rainfall to decrease by up to 90%.生长季节将完全消除十多年span/p类太冷暗无法播种粮食作物,使人类大都感冒。 >#b>NUCLELWINTER inBRIEF
The idea of nuclear winter, published and supported by prominent scientists, generated extensive public alarm and put political pressure on the United States and Soviet Union to reverse a runaway nuclear arms race, which, by 1986, had created a global nuclear arsenal of more than 65,000 nuclear weapons. Unfortunately, this created a backlash among many powerful military and industrial interests, who undertook an extensive media campaign to brand nuclear winter as "bad science" and the scientists who discovered it as "irresponsible."
Critics used various uncertainties in the studies and the first climate models (which are primitive by today's standards) as a basis to criticize and reject the concept of nuclear winter.1986年,对外关系理事会发表了一篇国家大气研究中心科学家的文章,预测全球冷却下降约比1983年研究预言的一半大并称它为“核秋季 ” 。 核秋季研究后来显示有深度缺陷,但证据来得太晚了,无法停止大规模涂片运动,使初始研究完全失真。
In response to what NATO leaders describe as Russia's "dangerous and aggressive actions," NATO has built up a "rapid-response force" of 40,000 troops on the Russian border in the Baltic States and Poland. This force includes hundreds of tanks, armored vehicles, and heavy artillery.北约驻爱沙尼亚部队在St彼得堡第二大城. sp类=s2's2'ahrfsss/news.usni.org/2016/05/12/aegis-ashore-site-span_VLS_factshe.pdf目标='#blank'span/ps类表示'p4'#span类表示's2'ReportsOn October 5, 2016, Russia conducted a nation-wide civil defense drill that included 40 million of its people being directed to fallout shelters. Reuters reported two days later that Russia had moved its Iskander nuclear-capable missiles to Kaliningrad, which borders Poland.
While the United States ignores the danger of nuclear war, Russian scholar Stephen Cohen reports that the danger of war with the United States is the leading news story in Russia. Cohen states:
Just as there is no discussion of the most existential question of our time, in the American political class — the possibility of war with Russia — it is the only thing being discussed in the Russian political class ...它们是两个不同的政治大全In Russia, all the discussion in the newspapers, and there is plenty of free discussion on talk show TV, which echoes what the Kremlin is thinking, online, in the elite newspapers, and in the popular broadcasts, the number 1, 2, 3, and 4 topics of the day are the possibility of war with the United States.
Cohen goes on to say:
I conclude from this that the leadership of Russia actually believes now, in reaction to what the United States and NATO have said and done over the last two years, and particularly in reaction to the breakdown of the proposed cooperation in Syria, and the rhetoric coming out of Washington, that war is a real possibility.自古巴导弹危机以来,我记不起来莫斯科领导层集体脑海中得出这一结论。